OurNBAteam of Christopher Walder, Nick Holz, and David Caraviello is here throughout the 2024 Finals between theBoston CelticsandDallas Mavericksoffering up their moneyline, spread, and total expert picks, with the best-of-seven series now shifting to the American Airlines Center for Game 3 on Wednesday night.
Let's take a look at all of their picks as the Celtics look to take a 3-0 lead on the road.
(Related Link)Ranking The 10 Best Players Of Celtics vs. Mavericks
NBA Finals Expert Pick Results
| Expert | Record | Units |
|---|---|---|
| Nick Holz | 2-0 | 1.82 |
| Christopher Walder | 3-1 | 1.73 |
| David Caraviello | 1-1 | -0.09 |
Jump To Picks
- Christopher Walder's Pick: Boston Celtics vs. Dallas Mavericks ML
- Christopher Walder's Pick: Boston Celtics vs. Dallas Mavericks OVER/UNDER
- Nick Holz's Pick: Boston Celtics vs Dallas Mavericks Spread
- David Caraviello's Pick: Boston Celtics vs Dallas Mavericks Spread
Boston Celtics vs. Dallas Mavericks Game 3 Preview & Picks
Matchup Page: Boston Celtics vs. Dallas Mavericks, 8:30 p.m. ET
Same-Game Parlay: Boston Celtics vs. Dallas Mavericks Game 3
Player Props: Boston Celtics vs. Dallas Mavericks Game 3
| Team | Spread | Money | Total |
|---|---|---|---|
| Boston Celtics | +1.5 (-105) | +105 | O 212.5 (-115) |
| Dallas Mavericks | -1.5 (-115) | -130 | U 212.5 (-105) |
Christopher Walder's Pick: Boston Celtics ML (+105)
Game 3 marks the first time all postseason that Boston enters a matchup as a betting underdog, which is the case as of early Monday morning. Now that could change come Wednesday, especially following two victories over Dallas by an average margin of 12.5 points.
The Mavericks' 105-98 loss at TD Garden on Sunday was the first time this postseason that they failed to win SU or cover the spread after getting beaten the previous game. They missed eight free throws and lost by seven points, and many pundits believe the late rejection by Derrick White on P.J. Washington's dunk attempt which could have cut the lead to three points with just under a minute remaining could have been a foul on either White or a trailing Jaylen Brown with a push in the back. Boston also scored 21 points off of the Mavericks' 15 turnovers, and went 20-of-27 in the restricted area after making all 15 shots in Game 1, so the result didn't come down to that one possession.
Mike Breen: "Not only was it a great block, there should've been a foul call. Jaylen Brown with a shove in the back on this PJ Washington play. Both guys blocked it, but that should've been a foul call."pic.twitter.com/tuLS0dCynd https://t.co/E742Lsx5Ft
— Dime (@DimeUPROXX) June 10, 2024
Since the 2021-22 season, Dallas is 5-1 SU and ATS when playing at home coming off a loss in the playoffs. If that trend continues, the Mavericks should rightfully be viewed as the betting favorites to make this a series, but after catching the action in Games 1 and 2, patterns from previous years may lead bettors astray.
Kyrie Irving is 1-12 against the Celtics since his now infamous stomp on their logo with the Brooklyn Nets, and hasn't scored more than 25 points in his last 10 tries against his former team. Dallas is 8-5 during this playoff run when Irving fails to score at least 25 points, but Boston is loaded with weapons and the Mavericks can't afford to have their No. 2 guy averaging 14 points while shooting 35.1 percent from the field without a single make from 3-point range like he has through two outings.
Taking the Celtics at plus money under any circ*mstances seems like a no-brainer. While Kristaps Porzingis appeared hobbled in Game 2, he told the media Sunday night that there's no chance he's missing Game 3. An injury absence may have been Dallas' golden ticket, but that's no longer the case. Until someone on the Mavericks other than Luka Doncic makes an impact, a sweep is very much on the table for the green and white.
Christopher Walder's Pick: UNDER 212.5 Total Points (-105)
We've seen a pair of UNDERs in Games 1 and 2, and we're going to carry forth on that front as long as Dallas appears to be a one-man Doncic show.
Doncic is averaging more than twice as many points as anyone else on the roster, and five different players on Boston are outscoring the second-leading scorer on the Mavericks, who's currently P.J. Washington at 15.5 per game. That's simply not a formula for Finals success.
Dallas has also hit the UNDER in three of its last four games, scoring 100 points or less each time. The team converted over 47 percent of its field goal attempts but still only mustered up 98 points on Sunday. Oddsmakers setting this prop at 212.5 combined points when the series hasn't exceeded 203 points is screaming action on the UNDER once again.
Nick Holz's Pick: Dallas Mavericks ATS -1.5 (-115)
The NBA betting trends favor the Mavericks heading into Game 3. NBA Finals favorites are now 15-5 SU and 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games after the Celtics won and covered in the first two games of this series.
Additionally, teams that win Game 2 are just 3-8 SU and ATS in their last 11 Game 3's. On top of that, teams seeded 3rd or worse (Dallas is a 5-seed), are on a phenomenal 11-4 ATS run in Game 3 or later of the NBA Finals.
This is a must-win contest for the Mavs. I expect Luka, Kyrie and their role players to step up and grind out a victory at home.
David Caraviello's Pick: Dallas Mavericks ATS -1.5 (-115)
Game 2 of the NBA Finals continued a playoff-long trend of Boston winning outright but struggling to cover the spread—in this case, pushing against a 7-point line. Now comes the news that Kristaps Porzingis is likely out again, this time because of a connective tissue issue in his left leg. Porzingis’ presence was the difference-maker in Boston’s Game 1 blowout, but with the scene shifting to Dallas and the Celtics big man unlikely to play, it’s tough to resist backing the Mavericks to cover in what should be a more perimeter-oriented matchup Wednesday night.
