Election latest: Tories 'facing electoral extinction' as vast new poll suggests they could win just 72 seats (2024)

Key points
  • Politics Hub With Ali Fortescue is live - watch and follow
  • Tories 'facing electoral extinction' as two polls show support cratering
  • Most people back NHS funding going up - even with tax rises
  • Starmer doesn't say where funding for NHS will come from
  • What did IFS say about Labour's NHS promises
  • Sunak arrives at Ukraine peace summit - which could be last event on world stage as PM
  • Questions over Labour claim on '10 million NHS waiting list'
  • Will Jennings:What the polls tell us about what will happen on 4 July
  • Listen to the Electoral Dysfunction podcastas you scroll andtap hereto follow wherever you get your podcasts
  • Live reporting by Ben Bloch and (earlier)Tim Baker
Election essentials
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  • Trackers:Who's leading polls?|Is PM keeping promises?
  • Campaign Heritage:Memorable moments from elections gone by
  • Follow Sky's politics podcasts:Electoral Dysfunction|Politics At Jack And Sam's
  • Read more:Who is standing down?|Key seats to watch|How to register to vote|What counts as voter ID?|Check if your constituency is changing|Your essential guide to election lingo|Sky's election night plans

18:52:39

Tories could be left with just 72 seats, vast new MRP poll suggests

The bad news keeps on coming for Rishi Sunak, with new polls showing support for the Conservative Party dropping through the floor.

A vast new MRP poll shows the Tories could be left with just 72 seats - while Labour could win a majority of 262 seats.

This poll is of 22,000 people, conducted by Survation, and it uses a method that allows the pollster to predict the result in each individual constituency.

The result would see the Tories left with less than half the number they won in their worst election in 1906, which was 156.

The only good news is that it still would leave the Tories as the main opposition party, with Reform winning just seven seats, and the Lib Dems 56.

It shows:

  • Labour: 456 seats
  • Tories: 72 seats
  • Lib Dems: 56 seats
  • Reform UK: 7 seats
  • Plaid Cymru: 2 seats
  • Green Party: 1 seat

A second poll published in the last hour shows support for the Tories has dropped four points in the last week.

In fact, it is the lowest vote share recorded for the Conservative Party since May 2019 - the dying days of the Theresa May premiership.

The Savanta poll of 2,045 people for the Sunday Telegraph also shows that Reform UK has risen by three points - and support for Labour has jumped as well.

The full results are:

  • Labour: 46% (+2)
  • Tories: 21% (-4)
  • Reform UK: 13% (+3)
  • Lib Dems: 11% (+2)
  • SNP: 2% (-1)
  • Other: 3% (-1)

Chris Hopkins, political research director at Savanta, said in a statement: "Our research suggests that this election could be nothing short of electoral extinction for the Conservative Party."

19:22:17

'Tough' few weeks, Tory candidate admits - but says some criticism of Sunak 'unfair'

The first guest on tonight's edition of Politics Hub With Ali Fortescueis Tory candidate Sir Philip Davies.

We start by asking how the Conservative campaign is going in light of recent disastrous polling, he replies: "It's been a tough few weeks."

But he says he is finding on the doorstep that "a lot of people haven't made their minds up".

"I think it's probably fair to say they're quite disillusioned with politicians generally."

He says there is "no great desire" to see Sir Keir Starmer in Downing Street, so "there's a lot of votes up for grabs".

Sir Philip rejects any assertion that the struggle is the fault of Rishi Sunak, although did concede that there have been some "unfortunate incidents".

"I think some of the criticism he's had that's been over-the-top and unfair, to be perfectly honest," he says, and adds that the Labour leader "seems to serenely go on without any real challenge from the media".

19:00:01

Politics Hub With Ali Fortescue is live

Our daily politics showPolitics Hubis live now on Sky News.

The fast-paced programme dissects the inner workings of Westminster, with interviews, insights, and analysis - bringing you, the audience, into the corridors of power.

Joining Ali tonight is Andrew Gwynne, Labour's shadow social care minister, as the party focusses its campaigning today on fixing the NHS.

She will also hear from Conservative candidatePhilip Daviesas the party continues to face an uphill struggle in the polls.

And David Gauke, former Tory justice secretary, will give his take on the future of the party.

On Ali's panel tonight are:

  • John Rentoul, chief political commentator for The Independent;
  • Mo Hussein, former Downing Street chief press officer.

Watch live on Sky News, in the stream at the top of this page, and follow live updates here in the Politics Hub.

WatchPolitics Hubfrom 7pm every night during the election campaign on Sky channel 501, Virgin channel 602, Freeview channel 233, on theSky News websiteandappor onYouTube.

18:30:01

Watch: The highlights of the Sky News leaders' event

Rishi Sunak and Sir Keir Starmer faced a grilling from our political editor Beth Rigbyand our live studio audience in Grimsby this week.

The Labour leader went first, being questioned on U-turns, his previous support for Jeremy Corbyn, and his proposals for government if he wins the election

The Conservative leader was held to account on his record, his progress at meeting his five pledges, and his plans for the next five years, should he win on 4 July.

If you missed the event and want to catch up, you can watch it in full here, or watch the highlights below.

18:00:01

Coming up on Politics Hub With Ali Fortescue

Our weeknight politics showPolitics Hubwill be live on Sky News from 7pm with ourpolitical correspondentAli Fortescuehosting this evening.

The fast-paced programme dissects the inner workings of Westminster, with interviews, insights, and analysis - bringing you, the audience, into the corridors of power.

Joining Ali tonight isAndrew Gwynne, Labour's shadow social care minister, as the party focusses its campaigning today on fixing the NHS.

She will also hear from Conservative candidatePhilip Daviesas the party continues to face an uphill struggle in the polls.

AndDavid Gauke, former Tory justice secretary, will give his take on the future of the party.

On Ali's panel tonight are:

  • John Rentoul, chief political commentator for The Independent;
  • Mo Hussein, former Downing Street chief press officer.

Watch live on Sky News, in the stream at the top of this page, and follow live updates here in the Politics Hub.

WatchPolitics Hubfrom 7pm every night during the election campaign on Sky channel 501, Virgin channel 602, Freeview channel 233, on theSky News websiteandappor onYouTube.

17:42:06

Sunak says Putin 'no interest in genuine peace' in speech at Ukraine summit

Rishi Sunak has just addressed delegates at the Ukraine Peace Summit in Switzerland.

Here is what he said, as he said it:

  • The prime minister says they are there "united" because they "choose peace";
  • "The Ukrainian people did not ask for this fight, but in defending their country, their valour and their sacrifice have been truly humbling to witness";
  • "It is a cruel paradox that the things that make life worth living are also the things for which brave men and women are prepared to die - for family, for freedom, for the ability to shape one's own future";
  • Mr Sunak references his first visit to Kyiv, and says there is "no justification" for Russia's actions;
  • He says Vladimir Putin has "no interest in genuine peace", having ordered countries in his sphere of influence not attend the summit;
  • "We should ask, why does Russia feel so threatened by a summit discussing the basic principles of territorial integrity, food security, and nuclear safety?"
  • The PM says the summit is a chance to move towards a just peace;
  • He concludes: "We want to see an end to this war, and we want to make this the day that the path towards a just and lasting peace in Ukraine became that much closer."

17:30:01

Sunak arrives in Switzerland for possibly last event on world stage as PM

Rishi Sunak has arrived in Switzerland for what is likely to be his last international engagement before the UK general election.

The prime minister is attending an Ukraine Peace Summit – along with 50 other world leaders – at a secluded resort near Lake Lucerne.

Addressing the event, Mr Sunak will warn Russia's allies that they are "on the wrong side of history".

He will say: "Putin has no interest in a genuine peace. He has launched a sustained diplomatic campaign against this summit, ordering countries to stay away, spinning a phoney narrative about his willingness to negotiate."

The event is the largest world leader gathering focussed solely on Ukraine since the Russian invasion began.

Mr Sunak is expected to meet the Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskyy to reiterate the UK's support for the country and re-emphasise that any peace deal should be on his terms.

The meeting comes a day after the prime minister arrived back from the G7 summit in Italy and at the midway point of the general election campaign.

With just under three weeks until polling day, the conservatives continue to lag in the polls, meaning this could be the last overseas summit Rishi Sunak attends as prime minister.

Recent months have seen Sir Keir Starmer work to increase his own presence on the international stage, attending the COP climate summit in Dubai and the World Economic Forum in Davos.

The Labour leader was also pictured speaking to world leaders, including President Zelenskyy, at D-Day commemorations in France last week.

Rishi Sunak was criticised for leaving the events early and subsequently apologised.

The prime minister also attended the Trooping of the Colour parade and is expected back in the UK on Saturday evening to continue campaigning.

17:21:36

Sunak repeats dubious tax claim as he insists he has 'clear plan'

Rishi Sunak spoke to broadcasters on arrival at the Ukraine Peace Summit in Switzerland a short while.

He expressed pride in the UK's support for Ukraine, saying it has "played a leading role", and was the first to provide lethal aid.

On the summit itself, that Russia is not attending, he said it's "right that we find a lasting peace on terms that are acceptable to Ukraine based on the principles of the territorial integrity and the UN charter".

The PM was also asked about matters at home.

It was put to him that his poll rating is disastrous, and is asked what he is doing to address it.

He replied: "I think what we've seen over the last week is manifestos from both the major parties and the clear choice at this election between a Conservative manifesto that offers a clear plan to deliver a secure future for Britain, taking bold actions and notably cutting taxes for people at every stage of their lives."

Mr Sunak went on to say that Labour is putting forward "no ideas".

"Just higher taxes. £2,000 worth of high taxes for every working family. I don't want to see that happen."

That claim about taxes that Mr Sunak and the Conservative Party have continued to repeat has been branded highly dubious by experts, including our economics and data editor Ed Conway.

16:46:26

Sunak arrives at Ukraine Peace Summit in Switzerland

After attending the G7 summit in Italy, the PM jetted back to the UK for Trooping the Colour this morning.

Following that national celebration of the King's birthday, he has immediately flown to Switzerland for the Ukraine Peace Summit.

Over 100 countries and organisations are attending the conference this weekend - including Ukraine's President Zelenskyy - to find a way of setting a path towards peace with Russia.

Vladimir Putin has not sent a delegation, however.

16:30:01

Tory donations top £570,000 in first week of election campaign - down from £5.7m in 2019

By Alexandra Rogers, political reporter

The Conservatives have raised just 10% of the donations they managed to collect in 2019 under Boris Johnson in the first week of the election campaign.

Electoral Commission data released today shows the Tories raised £574,918 in the period 30 May to 5 June, compared with the £5.7m they received from 6-12 November five years ago.

The figures show political parties reported £3.2m in donations in the first week of the election campaign.

Mr Sunak's party raised £574,918 through donations alone, on top of £22,453 that came from public funds.

Meanwhile, Labour generated £926,908 from donations alone and £652,411 from the public funds that are given to opposition parties with more than two MPs.

They show a complete turnaround in Labour's fortunes from the 2019 election, when the party raised just £218,500 in the first week of that campaign.

This time round, the single biggest donation given to Labour totalled £500,000 from film company Toledo Productions.

Read the full story here:

Election latest: Tories 'facing electoral extinction' as vast new poll suggests they could win just 72 seats (2024)
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